Table: The Value of the Deceptive Attack

CORRECTIONS: I did not take into account the value of a critical hit in the original version of this table. I have fixed this now. Thanks, for the proofreading and careful eyes in the comments.

I made this chart in Excel out of curiosity that shows the utility of using a deceptive attack to improve the odds of hitting an opponent.

Attack Skill	Defense Skill	Unmodified Chance To Hit	1	2	3	4	5
10	8	37.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	8	55.34%	42.20%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	8	67.69%	62.37%	45.54%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	8	75.10%	76.34%	67.38%	47.77%	0.00%	0.00%
18	8	75.10%	83.75%	82.51%	70.73%	49.11%	0.00%
20	8	75.10%	83.75%	89.92%	86.62%	72.73%	49.11%
10	10	25.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	10	37.96%	31.94%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	10	46.30%	46.99%	37.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	10	53.71%	57.41%	55.34%	42.20%	0.00%	0.00%
18	10	53.71%	64.82%	67.69%	62.37%	45.54%	0.00%
20	10	53.71%	64.82%	75.10%	76.34%	67.38%	47.77%
10	12	14.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	12	20.58%	19.91%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	12	24.90%	28.93%	25.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	12	32.31%	35.18%	37.96%	31.94%	0.00%	0.00%
18	12	32.31%	42.59%	46.30%	46.99%	37.51%	0.00%
20	12	32.31%	42.59%	53.71%	57.41%	55.34%	42.20%
10	14	6.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	14	8.54%	9.65%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	14	10.08%	13.55%	14.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	14	17.49%	16.25%	20.58%	19.91%	0.00%	0.00%
18	14	17.49%	23.66%	24.90%	28.93%	25.93%	0.00%
20	14	17.49%	23.66%	32.31%	35.18%	37.96%	31.94%
10	16	2.74%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	16	3.19%	4.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	16	3.49%	5.19%	6.31%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	16	10.90%	5.97%	8.54%	9.65%	0.00%	0.00%
18	16	10.90%	13.38%	10.08%	13.55%	14.34%	0.00%
20	16	10.90%	13.38%	17.49%	16.25%	20.58%	19.91%

Interesting Conclusions

1. When attacking skill is 16 or higher, it is usually better to take at least 1 level of deceptive attack, until the enemy has insane levels of active defense. At which point, 1 is actually worse than 0, and 2 is usually better than either 0 or 1.
2. By that same measure, each tier that is 2 points higher than 16 usually does better by 1 additional deceptive attack
3. Against incredibly skilled defenders, low skilled attackers are almost always better off using as much deceptive attack at they can muster. A pretty weird pattern emerges however when both attacker and defender have very high skill.

A lot of this is moot in real time though because you usually don't know down to the last point what your opponent's defensive capability is. It does show that deceptive attack is an important tool in securing success, especially at high skill levels.